Pre-feasibility study into solar energy rollout in Namibia

12. Impact of proposed solution

Without the ANE plant, Namibia faces sustained electricity shortages. As the entire sub-region faces electricity shortages, they need to build capacity in their own country. If they use Kudu gas (where they will need to use 70% of proven reserves over the life of the proposed plant) or a more expensive coal-fired power station – which is estimated to cost 50% more per KWh than Kudu, based on ANE’s models – neither will be able to be built before 2016, so they face shortages of 25% of demand by 2015.

Namibian electricity supply sources – 2021. Local coal-fired power station scenario

Namibian electricity supply sources – 2021. Local coal-fired power station scenario

Short-term supply options for this shortfall are not appealing:

  1. Load-shedding – which will have a negative impact on economic growth – based on the unserved cost of electricity in Uganda and Kenya, 25% load-shedding will reduce growth from +4% to – 7%, a net 11% contraction of the economy
  2. Delays in mining investment until sufficient local power capacity is built – delaying the opening of the four major mining projects in the next three years will also have a disastrous impact on the benign country rating for mining investment and tourism, on which it is pinning its national development strategy.
  3. Emergency supply options:
  4. Running the van Eck Power station at full capacity for the 120 MW needed which is so expensive it will wipe out NamPower’s healthy cash balance in 2010 – marginal costs, due to the low efficiency are over 5 times the average generation cost of NamPower’s baseload supply.
  5. Diesel power from Aggreko – this is extremely expensive and will require NamPower to be bailed out by the government. Costs are 20USc per KWh, double the marginal cost of van Eck.

Carbon impact

Namibian electricity sector carbon emissions – 2000-2050. Coal-fired + imports vs Natural Gas scenario – worst case

Namibian electricity sector carbon emissions – 2000-2050. Coal-fired + imports vs Natural Gas scenario – worst case


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *